FTDNATip TMRCA

25 Markers
The probability that two participants share a common ancestor when matching on "X" number of markers within the last "Y" generations.
Marker Matches	4 Generations	8 Generations	12 Generations	16 Generations	20 Generations	24 Generations
Marker Matches	(100 Years)	(200 Years)	(300 Years)	(400 Years)	(500 Years)	(600 Years)
25 of 25	61.17%	84.92%	94.15%	97.73%	99.12%	99.66%
24 of 25	25.5 - 28.0%	55.3 - 58.8%	75.6 - 78.8%	87.4 - 89.7%	93.7 - 95.2%	96.9 - 97.8%
23 of 25	7.0 - 8.5%	26.4 - 30.6%	48.6 - 54.2%	67.0 - 72.4%	80.1 - 84.5%	88.5 - 91.7%
22 of 25	1.3 - 1.9%	9.5 - 12.0%	24.6 - 29.7%	42.4 - 49.1%	58.9 - 65.9%	72.3 - 78.5%
21 of 25	0.2 - 0.3%	2.6 - 3.3%	9.8 - 12.0%	21.7 - 25.6%	36.1 - 41.5%	50.8 - 56.7%
This table shows a range of probabilities based on the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor. The FTDNATiP™ results are based on the mutation rate study presented during the 1st International Conference on Genetic Genealogy, on Oct. 30, 2004 and take into consideration the mutation rates for each individual marker being compared. The ranges were developed based on data from the Blair DNA Project. These ranges could possibly expand if data from other surname projects were considered. The above probabilities assume that the participants have NO prior knowledge of how they might be related. To view your own FTDNATiP™ Report, which will show actual probabilities based on which specific markers you mismatch with another participant, go to http://www.familytreedna.com/ftLogin.asp?kit=XXXX&code=YYYYY where XXXX is your Kit # (Participant ID) and YYYYY is your code provided to you by FTDNA. Once on your FTDNA home page click on the "Y-DNA Matches" tab. Click on the icon to view the FTDNATiP™ Report

37 Markers
The probability that two participants share a common ancestor when matching on "X" number of markers within the last "Y" generations.
Marker Matches	4 Generations	8 Generations	12 Generations	16 Generations	20 Generations	24 Generations
Marker Matches	(100 Years)	(200 Years)	(300 Years)	(400 Years)	(500 Years)	(600 Years)
37 of 37	83.49%	97.28%	99.55%	99.93%	99.99%	100%
36 of 37	58.6 - 59.2%	88.8 - 89.2%	97.4 - 95.6%	99.4 - 99.5%	99.8 - 99.9%	99.9%
35 of 37	29.3 - 32.3%	69.2 - 72.8%	89.4 - 91.5%	96.8 - 97.7%	99.1 - 99.5%	99.8 - 99.9%
34 of 37	10.3 - 13.5%	42.9 - 50.5%	72.2 - 79.1%	88.6 - 92.7%	95.8 - 97.8%	98.5 - 99.4%
33 of 37	3.3 - 4.1%	24.0 - 28.0%	53.6 - 59.2%	76.6 - 81.2%	89.7 - 92.6%	95.9 - 97.4%
32 of 37	0.9 - 1.2%	11.4 - 14.0%	35.2 - 40.5%	60.8 - 66.7%	79.7 - 84.2%	90.6 - 93.4%
31 of 37	0.1 - 0.3%	4.3 - 6.1%	19.0 - 24.6%	41.7 - 49.9%	63.8 - 71.9%	80.1 - 86.3%
30 of 37	0.0 - 0.1%	1.5 - 2.4%	9.6 - 13.4%	26.7 - 34.3%	48.1 - 57.5%	67.5 - 76.1%
29 of 37	0.00- 0.01%	0.3 - 0.5%	3.0 - 4.4%	11.5 - 15.5%	26.4 - 33.3%	44.6 - 53.2%
This table shows a range of probabilities based on the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor. The FTDNATiP™ results are based on the mutation rate study presented during the 1st International Conference on Genetic Genealogy, on Oct. 30, 2004 and take into consideration the mutation rates for each individual marker being compared. The ranges were developed based on data from the Blair DNA Project. These ranges could possibly expand if data from other surname projects were considered. The data for 37/37 matches was provided by William Hurst. The above probabilities assume that the participants have NO prior knowledge of how they might be related. To view your own FTDNATiP™ Report, which will show actual probabilities based on which specific markers you mismatch with another participant, go to http://www.familytreedna.com/ftLogin.asp?kit=XXXX&code=YYYYY where XXXX is your Kit # (Participant ID) and YYYYY is your code provided to you by FTDNA. Once on your FTDNA home page click on the "Y-DNA Matches" tab. Click on the icon to view the FTDNATiP™ Report