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Robert Blair & Isabella Rankin

Conventional Research
The Robert Blair - Isabella Rankin line is one of the most researched line in the BSGR. Thirty-six past and present members claim to descend from this line. The line predates the American Revolution.

Robert and Isabella had 7 sons: Matthew, David,  John, William, James, Robert,  and Joseph.

DNA Testing
We have six paricipants who believe they descend from the Robert Blair - Isabella Rankin line. Four descend through son Matthew, while two descend through son David. The four who descend from Matthew descend through three different sons: Jacob, Isaac, and Adam.

All six participants tested at least 25 markers. The number of mismatches each had with others is shown in the following table:

25 Marker Mismatches
  5328 18895 26521 129948 6086 9084
5328   0 18 18 18 18
18895 0   18 18 18 18
26521 18 18   1 1 4
129948 18 18 1   0 3
6086 18 18 1 0   3
9084 18 18 4 3 3  

Three participants tested at 37 markers. The number of mismatches each had with others is shown in the following table:

37 Marker Mismatches
  26521 129948 9084
26521   2 5
129948 2   3
9084 5 3  

The actual marker values for each participant are shown in the table below.

Marker 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
  DYS#
PART
ID#
3
9
3
3
9
0
1
9
*
3
9
1
3
8
5
a
3
8
5
b
4
2
6
4
3
8
4
3
9
3
8
9
i
3
9
2
3
8
9
ii
4
5
8
4
5
9
a
4
5
9
b
4
5
5
4
5
4
4
4
7
4
3
7
4
4
8
4
4
9
4
6
4
a
4
6
4
b
4
6
4
c
4
6
4
d
4
6
0
G
A
T
A
H
4
Y
C
A
II
a
Y
C
A
II
b
4
5
6
4
0
7
5
7
6
5
7
0
C
D
Y

a
C
D
Y

b
4
4
2
4
3
8
Matthew Blair
5328 15 24 15 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 28 16 8 9 11 11 25 15 20 28 11 11 14 15                        
18895 15 24 15 10 15 16 11 13 11 13 12 28 16 8 9 11 11 25 15 20 28 11 11 14 15                        
26521 12 24 14 11 11 15 12 12 12 13 13 29 14 10 10 11 11 26 15 19 30 14 15 17 17 11 11 19 23 15 17 19 17 35 38 12 12
129948 12 24 14 11 11 15 12 12 12 13 13 29 15 10 10 11 11 26 15 19 30 14 15 17 17 11 11 19 23 15 16 19 17 35 38 12 12
David Blair
6086 12 24 14 11 11 15 12 12 12 13 13 29 15 10 10 11 11 26 15 19 30 14 15 17 17                        
9084 12 24 14 11 10 15 12 12 12 13 13 29 15 9 10 11 11 26 15 19 31 14 15 17 17 11 11 19 23 15 16 19 17 35 38 12 12

The diagram below show the pedigrees of the six participants based on conventional research.

bsgr265 

Conclusions
Participants #5328 and #18895 match 25/25 but share a common ancestor in 3 transmission events. With only 3 such transmission events you expect to have a perfect match.

Participant #5328 and #18895 match the other four participants on only 7 of 25 markers. The probability of mismatching on 18 of 25 markers and sharing a common ancestor within 24 generations is less than 0.00001%.

 Participants #5238 or #18895 are haplogroup I2b1 while the others are R1b1b2. There is no way they can share a common ancestor with either #6086, #9084, #26521, or #129948.

The results for the other four participants are still unclear. Participant #9084 seems to be causing most of the confusion.

Participants #9084 and #6086 are believed to share a common ancestor (George Oscar Blair and Clarissa Torrey). There are 7 transmission events (opportunities for a mutation) between the two participants. The expected number of mutations (marker differences) in 7 transmission events is 0.7. The probability of 3 mutations in only only 7 transmission events is less than 3.0%.

At the 37 marker level there about a 50% chance that #9084 and #129448 both descend from Robert and Elizabeth. There is about a 15% probability that #9084 and #26521 both descend from Robert and Elizabeth.

 Participants #6086, #26521, and #129948 almost certainly share the common ancestor Robert.

This WebPage was last updated 01/17/2013

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